Species Distribution Modeling
Species distribution modeling is one of many tools available to assist managers in understanding the potential distribution of rare and endemic species when regulating and prioritizing different land-use scenarios. Developing a predictive model of the distribution of a particular species can involve several different techniques, and be reported under a variety of names. All such models, however, are based on the ecological principle that the presence of a species on the landscape is controlled by a variety of biotic and abiotic factors, in the context of biogeographic and evolutionary history.
Predictive models can be used to survey for new locations of a rare species, to eliminate areas from required clearance survey, or to evaluate threats to as-yet-undiscovered populations of a species. Models also may depict historic distributions or predict suitable habitat under projected future climate conditions.
CNHP has produced predictive distribution models for about 120 rare plant or animal species, several invasive species, and a number of common dominant and widespread ecosystem types. Generally our modeling work is used in support of federal and state agency conservation and planning efforts and not reported directly. Eventually we hope to make most models available for download – Stay tuned!
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Below are links to Species Distribution Modeling Reports
- Iterative Distribution Modeling for Two Endemic Plants of the Northern Piceance Basin
- Modeling the Potential Distribution of Three Endemic Plants of the Northern Piceance and Uinta Basins
- Modeling the potential distribution of Phacelia scopulina var. submutica (Debeque phacelia) and Astragalus debequaeus (Debeque milkvetch) in western Colorado
