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Exploring Potential Future Climate Scenarios

While all climate models show a global warming trend, there is still plenty of uncertainty in how hot it will get and how quickly, the effects of this warming on precipitation patterns, and how these changes will impact our natural resources. CNHP scientists have been exploring potential future climate scenarios, developing methods for anticipating potential distribution shifts and other effects, and working with partners to highlight priorities for management and options for adaption.

Kawuneeche Valley before a pine beetle infestation.
Kawuneeche Valley before a pine beetle infestation.
Kawuneeche Valley after a pine beetle infestation.
Kawuneeche Valley after a pine beetle infestation.

Kawuneeche Valley photos by Michael Menefee.

Left-click to view, and right-click to download.

Below are links to climate change resources:

  • Climate Change - CNHP Products and Services
  • Resources for Climate Change Vulnerability Analysis
  • Modeling Ecological Response to Support Adaptation Strategies
  • Southwest Colorado Social-Ecological Climate Resilience
For information, contact Lee Grunau.

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Spatial layers created for the BTPD Habitat Suitability Model`

Methods used for building the BTPD Habitat Suitability Model.

Methodological approach for identifying suitable landscapes for the black-tailed prairie dog (BTPD) ecosystem conservation.

Maps of state-level high conservation potential habitat (top 10% and 30%) for the black-tailed prairie dog ecosystem, under current and future climates (present, warm/wet, hot/dry, and overlaps

Maps of range-wide high conservation potential habitat (top 10% and 30%) for the black-tailed prairie dog ecosystem, under current and future climates (present, warm/wet, hot/dry, and overlaps

LandownershipArea (km2)Percent (%)
Private63,44765.4
Federal14,02114.5
State9,3479.6
Indigenous lands7,7798.0
NGO/private conservation2,2502.3
Local/Regional1000.1
Total96,944100
Overlap of top 10% high conservation potential areas with land ownership types
StateArea (km2)Percent (%)
Colorado24,08424.8
Montana19,40120.0
South Dakota19,33119.9
Wyoming18,94719.5
New Mexico7,0827.3
Nebraska2,5252.6
Arizona1,8451.9
Texas1,5521.6
Oklahoma1,0591.1
North Dakota6990.7
Kansas4200.4
Total96,944100
Lands with high conservation potential (Top 10%) for the prairie dog ecosystem, by state.