Colorado Natural Heritage Program Logo Colorado Natural Heritage Program Logo CNHP
  • About Us
    • About Us
      • Biennial Report
      • Strategic Plan
    • Conserving Biodiversity
    • Contact Us
    • Staff Directory
    • Careers
      • Employment
      • Internship
      • Volunteer
    • Meetings
    • The NatureServe Network
    • Partners
  • Our Work
    • Ecology
    • Wetlands
    • Plants
    • Animals
    • Climate Change
    • Education
    • Invasive Species
    • Statewide Natural Heritage Survey
  • Our Services
    • Database Development
    • GIS Analysis & Modeling
    • Mapping
    • Surveys & Inventories
    • Monitoring & Assessment
    • Conservation Planning
    • Private Lands Conservation
  • Our Data
    • About CNHP Data
    • Request Data
    • Contribute Data
    • Download Data
    • Tracking Lists
    • Potential Conservation Areas
    • Help & Documentation
  • Maps
    • (CODEX) Conservation Data Explorer
    • CNHP Spatial Layers
    • Wetlands Mapper
    • COMaP
  • Library
    • Reports
    • Tracking Lists
    • Potential Conservation Areas
    • Field Guides
      • Rare Plant Guide
      • Colorado Wetland Field Guides
  • Blog
  • Use CODEX Conservation Data Explorer

  • Donate Now

HOMES ON THE RANGE

  • By Emma Balunek

  • By Emma Balunek

  • By Emma Balunek

  • By Emma Balunek

  • By Emma Balunek

  • By Michael Menefee

  • By Emma Balunek

  • By Ana Davidson

  • By Michael Menefee

  • By Emma Balunek

  • By Michael Menefee

  • By Michael Menefee

  • By Emma Balunek

  • By Emma Balunek

  • By Emma Balunek

  • By Emma Balunek

  • By Emma Balunek

  • By Rurik List

  • By Rodrigo Sierra Corona

  • By Emma Balunek

  • By Rurik List

Identifying Potential Landscapes for Conservation across the Grasslands of North America: Integrating Keystone Species, Land Use Patterns, and Climate Change to Enhance Current and Future Grassland Conservation

Download Report PDF

Click a link below for details.

  • Habitat Suitability Model
  • Download the data for the Habitat Suitability Model
  • Conservation Prioritization Model
  • Download the data for the Conservation Prioritization Model
  • Interactive Map
  • Project Presentation Power Point
  • Story Map

Our team has developed a large-scale collaborative conservation planning initiative for the black-tailed prairie dog (BTPD) ecosystem that stretches across North America’s central grasslands. Because prairie dogs are keystone species (Fig. 1), their conservation and management often lies at the core of grassland conservation efforts. Through spatial modelling, we have identified potential landscapes for prairie dog ecosystem conservation that consider ecological, political, and social factors, along with changing climate and land use to maximize long-term conservation potential and co-existence with human activities. Our project results and data available for download, below, include two components: 1) a BTPD habitat suitability model under both current climate and projected future climate and 2) priority landscapes for BTPD ecosystem conservation across the range of BTPDs within the United States.

Fig. 1. Conceptual diagram illustrating how the ecological role of prairie dogs cascades throughout the prairie dog ecosystem. Plus signs indicate an increase in an ecosystem property as a result prairie dogs; minus signs indicate a decrease. (Drawings by Sharyn Davidson; modified version from Davidson et al. 2012 Frontiers in Ecol & Environ)
Fig. 1. Conceptual diagram illustrating how the ecological role of prairie dogs cascades throughout the prairie dog ecosystem. Plus signs indicate an increase in an ecosystem property as a result prairie dogs; minus signs indicate a decrease. (Drawings by Sharyn Davidson; modified version from Davidson et al. 2012 Frontiers in Ecol & Environ)





HABITAT SUITABILITY MODEL FOR THE BLACK-TAILED PRAIRIE DOG ECOSYSTEM

Back to top


Methods

Our HSM is based on presence and absence data for prairie dog occurrences across the geographic range of the BTPD within the United States, and how the prairie dog occurrences relate to climate, soils, topography, and land cover (Fig. 2). We also project the BTPD HSM under two future climate scenarios: 1) warm and wet and 2) hot and dry.

Fig. 2. Methodological approach for developing the black-tailed prairie dog habitat suitability model (HSM).
Fig. 2. Methodological approach for developing the black-tailed prairie dog habitat suitability model (HSM).
Table 1. Spatial data layers and their sources used in the black-tailed prairie dog (BTPD) habitat suitability model.
Table 1. Spatial data layers and their sources used in the black-tailed prairie dog (BTPD) habitat suitability model.

Table 1. Spatial Data Layers and their Sources used in the Black-tailed Prairie Dog (BTPD) Habitat Suitability Model.


Results

Back to top

Our final ensemble model exhibited high predictive accuracy, with an AUC of 0.96 and error rate of 13% at a Sensitivity (ability to correctly identify prairie dog habitat) of 95% (Fig. 3). The most suitable habitat for the BTPD ecosystem under the current climate extends largely from northern and eastern New Mexico and the panhandle of Texas and Oklahoma through eastern Colorado, eastern Wyoming, southern Montana, western south Dakota, and parts of western Kansas and Nebraska (Fig. 4). Small patches of suitable habitat occur through the southwest in Arizona, southern New Mexico, and southwest Texas. The eastern part of the original prairie dog range is largely unsuitable due to the extensive conversion of grassland to cropland, and the southern portion of their geographic range is limited largely by climate suitability. Low suitability across most of Nebraska is due to excessively sandy soils. Projecting suitable habitat into the future under both future scenarios (warm and wet; hot and dry) shows how the suitable habitat shifts northward.

Fig. 3. Performance metrics of the black-tailed prairie dog ensemble habitat suitability model. These performance metrics reflect when Sensitivity is set to 0.95.
Fig. 3. Performance metrics of the black-tailed prairie dog ensemble habitat suitability model. These performance metrics reflect when Sensitivity is set to 0.95.
Fig. 4. Black-tailed prairie dog (BTPD) habitat suitability models (SDM) under current climate and future climate scenarios. Dark green shows areas of highest habitat suitability for BTPDs, and beige shows areas of lowest suitability.
Fig. 4. Black-tailed prairie dog (BTPD) habitat suitability models (SDM) under current climate and future climate scenarios. Dark green shows areas of highest habitat suitability for BTPDs, and beige shows areas of lowest suitability.
Table 2: Number of Hectares of Black-tailed Prairie Dog Habitat that is of Low, Medium, and High Suitability within each State and Across the BTPD Range.
State NameLowMediumHigh
Montana1,763,3661,345,4331,588,702
North Dakota340,733180,27563,826
South Dakota1,711,3141,277,6641,470,485
Wyoming1,064,2721,021,1801,961,438
Nebraska692,534441,174389,552
Colorado1,338,6361,558,5624,216,600
Kansas631,120420,207760,199
Arizona13,7505,789108
Oklahoma280,290212,791480,503
Texas1,018,266804,6291,064,014
New Mexico1,169,982863,150728,047
Entire US Range10,024,5028,130,93612,723,491

Final Products for Habitat Suitability Model

Back to top

Download the Habitat Suitability Model Data (17.6Gb)
×
Colorado Natural Heritage Program Logo Colorado Natural Heritage Program
Digital Data Disclaimer

To download the BTPD habitat suitability model, you agree to use the following citation for all references to the data. Citation: Davidson, AD, D Augustine, M Menefee, M Fink, L Sterling-Krank, B Van Pelt. 2022. Part I: Habitat suitability model for the black-tailed prairie dog ecosystem. In: Davidson, AD, D Augustine, M Menefee, L Sterling-Krank, B Van Pelt, F Theisen Brum, M Fink, M Houts, M Williamson. Identifying potential landscapes for conservation across the grasslands of North America: Integrating keystone species, land use patterns, and climate change to enhance current and future grassland restoration efforts. Colorado State University.

These data are provided for non-commercial purposes only. Under no circumstances are data to be distributed in any fashion to outside parties

The Colorado Natural Heritage Program shall have no liability or responsibility to the data users, or any other person or entity with respect to liability, loss, or damage caused or alleged to be caused directly or indirectly by the data, including but not limited to any interruption of service, loss of business, anticipatory profits or indirect, special, or consequential damages resulting from the use of operation of the data. Data users hereby agree to hold CNHP, Colorado State University, and the State of Colorado harmless from any claim, demand, cause of action, loss, damage or expense from or related to data users use of or reliance on the data, regardless of the cause or nature thereof, and even in the event that such cause is attributable to the negligence or misconduct of CNHP. These data are provided on an as-is basis, as-available basis without warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, INCLUDING (BUT NOT LIMITED TO) WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. Although CNHP maintains high standards of data quality control, CNHP, Colorado State University, and the State of Colorado further expressly disclaim any warranty that the data are error-free or current as of the date supplied.

BY CLICKING ON THE “ACCEPT” BUTTON, YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE READ AND UNDERSTAND THE INFORMATION IN THE ABOVE DISCLAIMER AND AGREE TO THE TERMS OF THE AGREEMENT.







POTENTIAL LANDSCAPES FOR CONSERVATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GRASSLANDS OF NORTH AMERICA

Back to top


Methods

Fig. 5. Methodological approach for identifying suitable landscapes for the black-tailed prairie dog (BTPD) ecosystem conservation.
Fig. 5. Methodological approach for identifying suitable landscapes for the black-tailed prairie dog (BTPD) ecosystem conservation.

Here, we use a conservation planning analysis to identify potential landscapes for conservation across North America’s central grasslands, with a focus on the BTPD ecosystem within the United States (Fig. 5). The goal of this analysis was to not only assess the suitability of the habitat for the prairie dog ecosystem, but also how the social and political landscape, threats to prairie dog habitat (e.g., development), habitat connectivity, and general ecological landscape (e.g., percent cover of grass) collectively influence opportunities to conserve the BTPD ecosystem. We selected potential landscapes for prairie dog ecosystem conservation using the spatial conservation prioritization method and Zonation software.


Results

Our results show that potential landscapes for BTPD ecosystem conservation are largely found across the western portion of the current/historical range, and the priorities under current climate across the Southwest largely disappear under both future climate scenarios (Fig. 6). The areas with highest conservation priority are represented in red and pink. These areas primarily reflect high habitat connectivity, highly suitable habitat, and low threats. Very northeastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado, eastern Wyoming, eastern Montana, very eastern Nebraska, and western South Dakota harbor the greatest amount of priority habitat now and into the future. Much of (but not all) the high priority habitat in Arizona, southern New Mexico, and Texas under today’s climate does not maintain such status under the future climate scenarios.

Fig 6. Current and future priority area scenarios across the black-tailed prairie dog geographic range, within each State. a) Conservation priorities under the current climate; b) conservation priorities under the warm and wet (W&W) future climate scenario; c) conservation priorities under the hot and dry (H&D) future climate scenario; d) overlap of the top 25% conservation priorities across the present and future climate scenarios.
Fig 6. Current and future priority area scenarios across the black-tailed prairie dog geographic range, within each State. a) Conservation priorities under the current climate; b) conservation priorities under the warm and wet (W&W) future climate scenario; c) conservation priorities under the hot and dry (H&D) future climate scenario; d) overlap of the top 25% conservation priorities across the present and future climate scenarios.
Fig 7. Current and future priority area scenarios across the black-tailed prairie dog geographic range, within each State. a) Conservation priorities under the current climate; b) conservation priorities under the warm and wet (W&W) future climate scenario; c) conservation priorities under the hot and dry (H&D) future climate scenario; d) overlap of the top 25% conservation priorities across the present and future climate scenarios.
Fig 7. Current and future priority area scenarios across the black-tailed prairie dog geographic range, within each State. a) Conservation priorities under the current climate; b) conservation priorities under the warm and wet (W&W) future climate scenario; c) conservation priorities under the hot and dry (H&D) future climate scenario; d) overlap of the top 25% conservation priorities across the present and future climate scenarios.

As conservation policies and funding decisions are usually made by political entities, we also selected conservation priorities considering the state boundaries, so that priorities are identified within each state. The priorities change dramatically when we look by state, instead of across the entire BTPD range; this is to be expected because we are specifically modelling for priority habitat within each state (Fig. 7). We did this because funding sources and conservation priorities are often at the state-level, and not range-wide. This way, each state has information on conservation priorities within their own jurisdictional boundaries. In these state-based scenarios, much of the high priority habitats in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas remain high priority under the future climate scenarios. Using the state-based scenarios, we identified 26,935,416 ha (16%) that represent high conservation priority under current and projected future climates (Fig. 7).


Final Products for Conservation Prioritization Model

Back to top

Download Priority Areas BTPD Range 90m
Download Priority Areas BTPD Range 900m (22.4 Mb)
Download Priority Areas by State 90m
Download Priority Areas by State 900m (44.7 Mb)
Download Related Maps (113 Mb)
Download All (192.7mb)
×
Colorado Natural Heritage Program Logo Colorado Natural Heritage Program
Digital Data Disclaimer

To download the BTPD conservation prioritization model, you agree to use the following citation for all references to the data. Citation: Davidson, AD, F Thiesen Brum, M Houts, D Augustine, M Menefee, M Williamson, L Sterling-Krank, B Van Pelt. 2022. Part II: Potential landscapes for conservation across the Central grasslands of North America. In: Davidson, AD, D Augustine, M Menefee, L Sterling-Krank, B Van Pelt, F Theisen Brum, M Fink, M Houts, M Williamson. Identifying potential landscapes for conservation across the grasslands of North America: Integrating keystone species, land use patterns, and climate change to enhance current and future grassland restoration efforts. Colorado State University.

These data are provided for non-commercial purposes only. Under no circumstances are data to be distributed in any fashion to outside parties

The Colorado Natural Heritage Program shall have no liability or responsibility to the data users, or any other person or entity with respect to liability, loss, or damage caused or alleged to be caused directly or indirectly by the data, including but not limited to any interruption of service, loss of business, anticipatory profits or indirect, special, or consequential damages resulting from the use of operation of the data. Data users hereby agree to hold CNHP, Colorado State University, and the State of Colorado harmless from any claim, demand, cause of action, loss, damage or expense from or related to data users use of or reliance on the data, regardless of the cause or nature thereof, and even in the event that such cause is attributable to the negligence or misconduct of CNHP. These data are provided on an as-is basis, as-available basis without warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, INCLUDING (BUT NOT LIMITED TO) WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. Although CNHP maintains high standards of data quality control, CNHP, Colorado State University, and the State of Colorado further expressly disclaim any warranty that the data are error-free or current as of the date supplied.

BY CLICKING ON THE “ACCEPT” BUTTON, YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE READ AND UNDERSTAND THE INFORMATION IN THE ABOVE DISCLAIMER AND AGREE TO THE TERMS OF THE AGREEMENT.


Back to top

Interactive Map of the Black-tailed Prairie Dog Ecosystem
Habitat Suitability Model and Priority Areas for Grassland Conservation

Open the map
map





Project Power Point Presentation

Back to top






Grassland Conservation Story Map

Back to top






Partners

nontransparent_cnhp_logo_blacktext-jan2016
boisestatelogo
ufprlogo
wafwalogo
csulogo
kansaswildlife
northcentrallogo
usdalogo
prairiedog
hUSU
Kansaslogo

Contact us

Authors :

Ana Davidson, Colorado Natural Heritage Program (CNHP) &
Dept. of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State Univ (CSU)
Bill Van Pelt, Western Association of Fish & Wildlife Agencies (WAFWA)
David Augustine, USDA-Agricultural Research Service
Fernanda Thiesen Brum, Universidade Federal do Paraná – Brazil
Lindsey Sterling-Krank, Prairie Dog Coalition, Humane Society of the US
Matt Williamson, Boise State University
Michael Houts, Kansas Biological Survey & Center for Ecological Research, University of Kansas
Michael Menefee
, CNHP, CSU
Michelle Fink, CNHP, CSU

Web Projects

  • CODEX - Colorado’s Conservation Data Explorer
  • Rare Plant Guide Online
  • Colorado Wetland Info Center
  • COMaP - Colorado Protected Lands
  • Colorado Bat Working Group
  • STReaMS - Endangered Fishes Database
  • Colorado Native Plant Database Data Portal

About Us

  • About Us
  • Conserving Biodiversity
  • Contact Us
  • Staff Directory
  • Careers
  • The NatureServe Network
  • Partners
  • Site Map
Warner College of Natural Resources Logo
  • Apply to CSU
  • Equal Opportunity
  • Disclaimer
  • Privacy Statement
  • Search CSU
  • CSU Land Acknowledgement
  • CSU Principles of Community
© 2025 Colorado Natural Heritage Program
Colorado State University Logo
  • About Us
    ▼
    • About Us
      ▼
      • Biennial Report
      • Strategic Plan
    • Conserving Biodiversity
    • Contact Us
    • Staff Directory
    • Careers
      ▼
      • Employment
      • Internship
      • Volunteer
    • Meetings
    • The NatureServe Network
    • Partners
  • Our Work
    ▼
    • Ecology
    • Wetlands
    • Plants
    • Animals
    • Climate Change
    • Education
    • Invasive Species
    • Statewide Natural Heritage Survey
  • Our Services
    ▼
    • Database Development
    • GIS Analysis & Modeling
    • Mapping
    • Surveys & Inventories
    • Monitoring & Assessment
    • Conservation Planning
    • Private Lands Conservation
  • Our Data
    ▼
    • About CNHP Data
    • Request Data
    • Contribute Data
    • Download Data
    • Tracking Lists
    • Potential Conservation Areas
    • Help & Documentation
  • Maps
    ▼
    • (CODEX) Conservation Data Explorer
    • CNHP Spatial Layers
    • Wetlands Mapper
    • COMaP
  • Library
    ▼
    • Reports
    • Tracking Lists
    • Potential Conservation Areas
    • Field Guides
      ▼
      • Rare Plant Guide
      • Colorado Wetland Field Guides
  • Blog
  • Use CODEX Conservation Data Explorer

  • Donate Now
  • About Us
    ▼
    • About Us
      ▼
      • Biennial Report
      • Strategic Plan
    • Conserving Biodiversity
    • Contact Us
    • Staff Directory
    • Careers
      ▼
      • Employment
      • Internship
      • Volunteer
    • Meetings
    • The NatureServe Network
    • Partners
  • Our Work
    ▼
    • Ecology
    • Wetlands
    • Plants
    • Animals
    • Climate Change
    • Education
    • Invasive Species
    • Statewide Natural Heritage Survey
  • Our Services
    ▼
    • Database Development
    • GIS Analysis & Modeling
    • Mapping
    • Surveys & Inventories
    • Monitoring & Assessment
    • Conservation Planning
    • Private Lands Conservation
  • Our Data
    ▼
    • About CNHP Data
    • Request Data
    • Contribute Data
    • Download Data
    • Tracking Lists
    • Potential Conservation Areas
    • Help & Documentation
  • Maps
    ▼
    • (CODEX) Conservation Data Explorer
    • CNHP Spatial Layers
    • Wetlands Mapper
    • COMaP
  • Library
    ▼
    • Reports
    • Tracking Lists
    • Potential Conservation Areas
    • Field Guides
      ▼
      • Rare Plant Guide
      • Colorado Wetland Field Guides
  • Blog
  • Use CODEX Conservation Data Explorer

  • Donate Now
  • About Us
    ▼
    • About Us
      ▼
      • Biennial Report
      • Strategic Plan
    • Conserving Biodiversity
    • Contact Us
    • Staff Directory
    • Careers
      ▼
      • Employment
      • Internship
      • Volunteer
    • Meetings
    • The NatureServe Network
    • Partners
  • Our Work
    ▼
    • Ecology
    • Wetlands
    • Plants
    • Animals
    • Climate Change
    • Education
    • Invasive Species
    • Statewide Natural Heritage Survey
  • Our Services
    ▼
    • Database Development
    • GIS Analysis & Modeling
    • Mapping
    • Surveys & Inventories
    • Monitoring & Assessment
    • Conservation Planning
    • Private Lands Conservation
  • Our Data
    ▼
    • About CNHP Data
    • Request Data
    • Contribute Data
    • Download Data
    • Tracking Lists
    • Potential Conservation Areas
    • Help & Documentation
  • Maps
    ▼
    • (CODEX) Conservation Data Explorer
    • CNHP Spatial Layers
    • Wetlands Mapper
    • COMaP
  • Library
    ▼
    • Reports
    • Tracking Lists
    • Potential Conservation Areas
    • Field Guides
      ▼
      • Rare Plant Guide
      • Colorado Wetland Field Guides
  • Blog
  • Use CODEX Conservation Data Explorer

  • Donate Now